Watch Out Tories: Liberals Hate to Lose and Rarely Do.
Nobody likes to get off to a bad start. In fact whether it is hockey, track and field, baseball or politics, a good start is key to winning. So I feel for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. For a guy that held out ethics and accountability as his royal jelly, his fresh start quickly looked like a rerun of Liberal cronyism out of the gate. It was a bad start like no other. I can’t remember a government starting out with its head completely in the sand.
That’s not to say he won’t turn it around and do it quickly. I’ve met the man on a couple of occasions. I even got to go toe to toe with him, economist to economist at a meeting last April. He’s a bright guy. Surely he did some of these things with the next federal election in the cross hairs. David Emerson and especially Michael Fortier may hold the key to future electoral success.
The key may be whom the Liberals choose as leader. At the present time, that’s a real crapshoot. I subscribe to Nik Nanos’s SES Research polls. It’s a free service from SES Research. Their polls during the last election campaign were dead on. They recently emailed me their latest polling on the Liberal prospects under different Liberal leaders.
The following is a quote from the SES Osprey Media poll conducted in Ontario
“Our survey completed February 3rd found that four potential Liberal leadership candidates are statistically tied as the preferred choice to lead the Liberal Party of Canada. Ken Dryden (14%), Bob Rae (12%), Michael Ignatieff (12%) and Belinda Stronach (10%) were the top four choices of Ontario voters. Twenty-eight percent of voters said they were unsure.”
Question: Regardless of the party you support, who would be your choice to succeed Paul Martin as Liberal leader?
Unsure 28%
Ken Dryden 14%
Bob Rae 12%
Michael Ignatieff 12%
Belinda Stronach 11%
Frank McKenna 7%
Brian Tobin 7%
Anne McLellan 4%
Joe Volpe 3%
Martin Cauchon 1%
Other 2%
If you have read this column regularly, you’ll know I don’t see a lot of “upside” to polls especially when there is no election in the offing. However, when there is an election on the horizon, I think polling firms are very useful for journalist. For instance in the last general federal election SES’s last poll was as good as it gets.
So this latest poll is a real shot in the dark, but it does give us a few clues on the thoroughbreds that might be running for the Liberal party. Other than Ken Dryden, where are the stars? Bob Rae is all about NDP to me. Ignatieff is a great read for an academic. McKenna, McLellan and Tobin aren’t running and Joe Volpe and Martin Cauchon are off the charts. Belinda Stronach if nothing else will keep it interesting.
What we are talking about here is the Liberal party, which to some is seen as the natural governing party of Canada. Have the mighty fallen so far? I don’t think so. Yes they have fallen but with 102 seats in the house, that’s not very far. However, with the list provided by SES, that’s where I think they have problems.
In many ways, its too bad Paul Martin said he would not carry the Liberals back into an election. He’s about the best they have right now. His problem is he’s too old for this game now especially against a 46-year-old opponent with a cabinet full of youngsters. That didn’t come out in the last campaign, but it is striking. In politics, age counts for something. Mr. Martin was a good Prime Minister. However when he tripped up in 2004 with a minority, he lost his big chance to govern. Father time would not let him run in a third federal election as leader.
So it is what it is. Some Conservatives might think that with the Bloc deciding to support them, they are home free. Well, I wish them good luck. Don’t ever count out the Liberal party. If they lose their way and go to far left, they will stay in opposition. However, if they continue to fight foe the mushy middle, in 2007 they hold a good chance of getting back government. Liberals hate to lose and very rarely do. Conservatives need to remember that. I’m sure Stephen Harper knows that.
Having said that, 2007 seems a world away. The political reality which will come in the late summer of that year will surely shape of the political future of this country. When the election call comes, it’ll be all our warfare. Canadian will find out then just what Stephen Harper is made out of.