Russia And The West: Trying To Understand Each Other
Russia and the west – bankrupt policy or madness!
By Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque Ph.D
With Philip Shaw M.Sc.
The short-lived war between Russia and Georgia is quite a story in many parts of the world. Russia, once a giant super power, was on its knee to receive help from the West after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The attack by Georgia on the South Ossetians came as a surprise to me when it was first reported on Al Jazeera TV. Initially I thought President Sakasvilli must be crazy to take up such a risky job (clearly he was prompted by some of his allies!). President Sakasvilli took a calculated risk in his adventurous journey to deal with Russia and his decision has paid off. The US has now decided to reward him with a billion dollar aid package without this his government would have collapsed by now.
The world has awakened up with a different Russia in August and until today I am not sure what led this giant to wake up. Russia has been a forgotten giant to most of the people. It was weak, financially bankrupt and corrupt. The corruption scandal of this giant was so big that many believe the CIA was successful in infiltrating inside the Kremlin and killed the Soviets through Gorbachev. After the death of the Soviet Union most people understood that the world is now a uni-polar world. They have been trying to live with one superpower, the USA. It was going all well until now. But according to Russia “the west has to reckon with a new Russia”. The question is – Is it going to be so?
I have my doubts on this. All the reactions that we have seen from the rest of the world are mostly silence. No one trusts Russia any more. No one is sure about who they are or what they are after? Is there an ideology to follow if other nations have to accept Russia as a superpower? The answer is no. Can they trust Russia to help them during their problems with the US or the west (when these countries illogically intervene into their domestic affairs)? The answer is no. Does Russia have the ability to help others during a financial or a military crisis? The answer is no. Will Russia live up to its commitment to help it ally? The answer is no. Russia has been subservient to western ideology and power in the past two decades and this is a big problem for them. They cannot be trusted at this moment.
However, it is also true that the rest of the world is fed up with the US and its interventionist strategy too. The anger against the US has been increasing day by day and the hypocrisy of the US policy is also evident to most of us. The so-called “democracy” game is over now. President Bush is no longer interested to bring the Arabs out of darkness and establish democracy there. The oil is now more costly than before. The US has been unable to “take over” the oil resources of the Iraqis. Thanks to the voting behavior of the Iraqis who voted a Shiite leader into power and not a Sunni Kurd! The food price hike has now hit almost all the countries of the world. Everyone knowingly or unknowingly is blaming the US for its poking attitude into the affairs of a different country in the name of “dealing with terrorism”. Against this background, Russia thought that it would be receiving some appreciation for its role to stand up against the giant. It did not happen.
To me, Russia has lost its moral authority when it succumbed to the pressure of the US in dealing with world affairs in the UN over the past two decades. Unlike China, which, on many of the world issues, remained silent in the Security Council, Russians voted strongly in favor of the US and British backed resolutions consistently. As a result, the rest of the world understood that Russians were more interested to appease the west in return for investment into Russia. Today, Russia has turned its back because the west has gone too far. Far beyond their expectation and decided to expand NATO into the heartland of Russia. This was perhaps the last move of the west to ensure that Russia is paralyzed forever. As a result, Russia had to react to ensure their own survival as a sleeping superpower and to ensure that they are not discounted in world affairs by the west.
For the rest of the world, no one would trust Russia until they prove to the world that they have a vision too and that they are not bankrupt in terms of ideology. To me, Russia is still on the wrong side of the fence. They are counting on the dependence of the west on their resources too much and forgetting that they are dependent on them too. In the past, Russia had opportunity to alter their dependence on the west when China asked Russia to link their oil fields to Chinese markets. Russian leaders, perhaps with advice from the west, did not pay attention to this. Russian leaders were baffled with the reward they received from the west, a member of the G8 club! They did not understand that in that club Russia is nobody and will remain nobody in the future. As long as Russia remains dependent on the west for oil revenue and for investment dollars, it is highly unlikely that the rest of the world will pay any attention to Russian calls.
However, having said all this let the west not forget that they also did too much and has created a volatile world today. Russia can play their cards too. Let us not forget that in Afghanistan NATO forces are in trouble. With 80 percent of the adult population injured by the successive wars, with more than half a million dead bodies in that region, the days are numbered for NATO. The NATO forces are engaged in an unequal exchange of firepower in Kabul. Like Russia their response is also “disproportionate”. Everyday the record of killing shows that innocent civilians are now being killed in that country in the name of killing the Taliban. Karzai himself was reported to be angry over this. Russia might not have forgotten that the US and their allies used the Taliban, armed the Taliban to oust the Russians! It took ten years for the west to oust the Russians and it is also taken ten years now and Afghanis are now showing their anger too. Everyday, NATO forces are now hit deep inside the city. The Taliban are not living in jungles any more, they have brought the war inside the cities and this is a warning sign for the west!
Iran is another tricky issue for the west. Iraq itself has remained very tricky for years. The US army has decided to come back to the cities, after withdrawing from Anbar province – is it a sign of winning or retreating? Moreover, the war is now spread across international boundaries with Pakistan getting involved. There is a saying in this part of the world that a drowning man clings to floating grass to survive! To me extending the war inside Pakistan is a signal of a defeated NATO army. They are drowning and so it is easy to blame Pakistan and its border people for this. The fact of the matter is, the large majority of the people of Afghanistan did not support NATO intervention in this scale, the killing of half a million people in this war is a permanent scar for them. Every single family is affected, every single family has a story to tell, how their kids and kin were killed in the war. So they must realize, outsiders cannot bring peace. The Russians did not bring it, nor will the NATO. I hope the west understands the risk.
East Versus West, North Versus South: We Just Don’t Understand Each Other
By Philip Shaw M.Sc.
Long live the South Ossetians! However, let me ask the pertinent question. Who are the South Ossetians and what is their problem? Further are the South Ossetians that much different than the North Ossetians? How does this affect Canada? How does this affect Bangladesh? What is really going on here?
First of all, let’s get real here. The Ossetians wherever they are have issues just like many other groups of people in this world. However, it just so happens that Russia, a former superpower and Georgia, a new favourite of the west surround the Ossetians. With Georgia being a conduit for Caspian oil and gas to the west, it’s a new frontier for an old cold war front. The bloody war last month should serve, as a reminder to everyone that Russia doesn’t take to kindly to western mischief in its old neighbourhood. There whole history is one, which dominates the region.
Keep in mind that Russia is not necessarily like Enamul described it. It’s no longer the military superpower it once was, but it’s still the second largest nuclear power on earth. Also too, Russia has the world’s largest natural gas reserves, the second largest coal reserves, and the eighth largest oil reserves. Russia is also the world’s largest exporter of natural gas, the second largest oil exporter and the third largest energy consumer. (US Government Statistics) They are feeding an energy hungry Europe.
That gives Russia new power on the world stage which they had lost since the Soviet Union disintegrated. Are they as belligerent as Enamul says they are? I’m not so sure. However, Russians have a long memory of what happened to their country in the WWII. If you are a Russian leader looking west, I think you’d feel threatened. There posturing pre and post Georgian war has a real basis.
When it comes to a monopoly on causing instability in the world I’m not so sure Russia and “the West” have it. How about the implosion in Zimbabwe and some of the problems in South America? How about the problems in Darfur and the involvement of China? How about, how about, how about? It’s true, Russia and “the West” cause their share, but they don’t have a monopoly.
Needless to say, there are problems and NATO is one of them. For instance Enamul refers to the NATO army in Afghanistan. That may be the way it is perceived in Asia, but in Canada it’s a lot different. For instance NATO stands for North Atlantic Treaty Organization, which was put together after WWII to defend Western Europe, the United States and Canada from anybody else, but mainly the Warsaw Pact counties. At the time and through the years NATO was controversial in Canada. For instance when one NATO country is attacked, everybody is attacked and the perpetrator must face the consequences. That’s one reason shock waves reverberated through Ottawa on September 11th, 2001 when the US was attacked. Canada was boxed in with regard to “fighting back” with the US.
However, how would Canadians and Americans feel if Georgia was part of NATO and we were obligated to fight back against the Russians? Not so good I suspect to the point where it would be seen as ridiculous. Some Canadian political parties have called for Canada to get out of NATO just because of that. Now that NATO is into Afghanistan, the concept of NATO seemingly has nothing to do with the cold waters of the North Atlantic.
However, NATO is in Afghanistan in a response to 9/11 which happened 7 years ago this month. They are there in an attempt to make sure radical Islam doesn’t get a country back to threaten western society. Is there an end game? I’m not so sure. It seems years away. However, I don’t think NATO is trying to bring peace. There are too many large lessons on Afghanistan left behind by the Russians and the British before them. NATO is trying to make war on the Taliban.
Needless to say Enamul is right when he writes about half a million Afghani people dead. It is a permanent scar for them. It’s obscene and if it happened in Canada, the United States or Russia, there would be hell to pay. Can peace be brought in from outsiders as Enamul asks? In 2008 it sure looks not. However, some things the west just can’t fathom. At the end of the day, with its security threatened, western countries will do about anything.