John McCain’s Presidency Still In Play
Thankfully, it’s almost over. And if election predictions are right, we’ll end up in Canada about the way we were when this election was called. In the next few hours we should know. My question is how about that election down south. Heading into the homestretch, with Obama leading McCain in both the popular vote and the Electoral College, it looks like the Democrats smell victory.
We shall see. It has surely been compelling. I’ve always been a John McCain fan. He is like cat, because he has so many lives. He has almost lost his life many times, whether it’s been in airplane accidents, captivity in Vietnam and his bouts with cancer. John McCain is a survivor and he shouldn’t be written off, as the Americans get closer to the November vote.
Of course the big caveat in the American election campaign has been the economy. Yes, it surprised everybody, including John McCain, Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Sarah Palin. Americans might be looking for “change we can believe in” or an end to the war in Iraq, but when American banks started choking on their own problems, the economy became the central issue in the US campaign.
The problem for the Republicans is they have the Presidency and on George Bush’s watch the sub-prime mortgage problem emerged. So when the spaghetti started hitting the fan a few weeks ago, McCain was guilty by association. Barack Obama’s numbers started to skyrocket. Even traditional red states like Virginia are looking to go Democrat for the first time since 1964.
In many ways it doesn’t look like a fair fight. Barack Obama looks and acts cool and I don’t mean in the cute sense. Simply put, he’s cool under pressure and can think on his feet with the best of them. His youthful stance versus McCain is striking. When they debate, McCain can’t hide his disdain for Obama. Obama simply cools his heels and let’s the people decide.
In Canadian circles, Obama is the run away choice. Credit Canada’s liberalism for that. We’ve never had a visible minority as a major party leader, but we sure like to see it in the “States.” In my opinion its led many of us to visualize an Obama Presidency long before it materializes.
You might remember a few months ago, I said that would never happen. In fact, I was pretty sure then, in November it would be President John McCain. What Canadians forget sometimes is the large conservative constituency within the United States. What would never pass in the Canadian political discord on gay rights, guns, religion, patriotism and jingoism, passes with flying colours in American conservative circles. John McCain during a long distinguished political career always resisted it. However, during this long political campaign, he embraced it.
His secret weapon I believed would be a female Presidential choice. Simply put, I believed McCain would take a chance on a woman to fight back against the political celebrity of Obama. When he picked Alaska Governor Sarah Palin my thoughts were confirmed. She was young, attractive, had executive experience and was a solid member of the American conservative constituency, something McCain certainly isn’t. She also had the capacity to out-celebrity Obama, something she did in spades after she was nominated.
Since then Palin’s celebrity has dimmed a bit. She had a few problems with American media icons Katie Couric and Charlie Gibson. She didn’t know what the Bush doctrine was and couldn’t think of another Supreme Court decision other than Roe versus Wade. Accordingly, many in the American media have panned her.
Nonetheless, she’s still got the “you betcha”, “I Love America” attitude that American conservatives love. At the end of the day I still think she’s a real asset for John McCain.
I say that because as November 4th gets closer I expect the American election race to tighten up significantly. For instance if you look at this site, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html, you’ll see how far Obama is ahead. In many ways for him, it’s too early. He’d be much better off having that lead going into November.
McCain will be fighting back and he might also benefit from something called the “Bradley effect”. That has to do with former African American Los Angeles mayor Tom Bradley when he ran for the Governor of California. Even though polls had him way ahead, he lost to the Republican George Deukmejian. People said they supported him, but they didn’t vote that way. Some American analysts say the Bradley effect on Obama could account for at least 6 percentage points in the polls.
It leads me to think my prediction of a McCain presidency is still on track. However, all of you know I’m a numbers man and the numbers say Obama. We’ll see. It’s pretty clear to me the next few weeks in the American election race will be fascinating. As it gets tighter, it’ll get dirtier and livelier. Late into the night on November 4th I’ll be watching. We’ll see if history gets made.