Another Look At Lanworth: What’s Really Growing Out There?
In this world we seem to be guessing all the time. For instance as farmers we’re constantly looking at those fields and wondering how many bushels per acre we can get out of them. Then of course there are our friends at the USDA and Statistics Canada who make their monthly and yearly predictions sending our markets a twitter. Even your loyal scribe from time to time has to make a prediction about Ontario corn acres. I’m not revealing any of my secrets. Needless to say I think there is a better way.
Earlier this past year I wrote a column about the USDA, Statistics Canada and the private research firm Lanworth. That was a bit of a watershed column for me because I got so much response back from my Canadian listeners and readers. It has become even more interesting in this backward late production season with the Lanworth estimate of US corn production sitting at 12.3 billion bushels versus our friends at the USDA who are over 13 billion bushels. As I said a couple of months ago, who’s right?
I talked with Lanworth representatives recently about their approach to what they refer to on their website as “natural resource intelligence.” Or in other words what is their vision when it comes to making predictions on the scope, acreage and production of crops like corn and soybeans in the United States, Brazil and other places. I was interested because I knew my readers were interested but I was also interested because I think it is something that we can use in Canada.
After talking with Lanworth representatives it became very clear to me this company is using very new innovative modern technologies to measure accurately future production. For instance I was told that they believe with all the modern technologies available today that we should be able to look toward the future much more versus looking behind us to the past when considering crop potential. With the breadth of new satellite data and technologies, which are available, it gives the ability to get much greater visibility on crop production and to keep up-to-date. Part of the challenge that Lanworth has is getting people on the ground to help verify some of the satellite imagery, which they use to predict crop potential. That surely will be a challenge when Lanworth makes inroads into Canada.
It certainly would be worth a try. I don’t think in Canada we hear much about “forward-looking “”new technologies “when it comes to predicting crop health and crop production on a monthly or annual basis. How about having technology that is forward-looking based on new computer models that can measure crop development in real time? Simply put, as farmers on both sides of the border market information can be so much better and the Lanworth example is probably only one of many that needs to be considered.
Of course next week we get the USDA crop production report on November 10. Market action in the last day or two is telling us that this new weather window that is supposedly opening up means we are going to get that 13 billion bushel corn crop and that 3.25 billion bushel soybean crop. The market action we’ve seen over the last few weeks has put some doubt in that process sending prices a lot higher. It is almost hard to imagine in my mind that we will make those crop production levels based on all the problems that we’ve had. However at a certain point I think we have to come to the realization that maybe that crop is out there and will finally get into the bin. That’s what makes the Lanworth corn estimates so interesting. Their track record is very good and farmers have been telling us all year in the US Corn Belt the crop is not there and seemingly nobody believes them.
In Ontario there only a few people in my area who still don’t have soybeans off and your loyal scribe is one of them. I don’t know what it was this year. I’ve got the least soybean acres in my career and it’s November and it’s still difficult to get them off. Hopefully this weather window will provide it. Needless to say corn is coming off across the province and in southwestern Ontario yields look very strong and moisture levels are decreasing. Of course the question is do we have 1.823 million acres of corn in Ontario predicted by Statistics Canada or is it the 1.6 or 1.7 million acres most of the private trade was predicting this spring? Of course nobody really knows and that’s why we need a better way of measuring the acres and the production that we grow.
The end of the day will probably come in January 2010. At that time the USDA might reflect the harvest problems we’ve gone through with a lower corn and soybean yield. Don’t expect it next week. So when January happens I’ll take another look at the Lanworth estimates. Taking the guessing out of the proverbial guessing game regarding crop numbers might help us in the long run. However, it might take some of the fun for people like me away. And in Canada getting a better way can’t come soon enough.