with Philip Shaw M.Sc
The last time I wrote this column was in May, 2011.  After this, I was silent and I apologize to you for this failure.  Meantime, Phil and I had discussed this issue several times and decided to start writing again but this time without any podcast.  From now on, podcast will be optional because it has been dragging me most of the time.  This month I would like to talk about Kenya, a place that I visited last month in connection with my professional works at UNEP.
Kenya is an equatorial country located in the east coast of Africa, a member of East African Community. It is more known for its tourism and in particularly for its great tourist destinations like Masai Mara National Reserve, Nakuru National Park, etc.  Kenya gained independent from UK in 1963 and has become a Republic in 1964.  The country is divided into 8 administration regions with a total population of 41 million.
This was my second trip to Africa. Last time, I went to Senegal, which is on the west coast.   There is a huge difference between these two countries (of course, the time period is different too), as I see them.  They are also different in their history.  Senegal was under several colonial rules since 1000 AD.  Its national language is French and Arabic – Kenya’s is English and Swahili.
Kenya had a large community of Indians (mostly from Gujrat), who emigrated during the British rule to build the Railways.  These people are now quite powerful in terms of business and trade.  Because of these groups and also because of several different linguistic groups living inside Kenya, English is well spoken here.  This was a pleasant surprise for people like me.
Africa has been a supply source of resources to the world and unfortunately they never could fully take advantage of their vast natural resources.  It was always exploited by the powerful nations.  Colonial masters took it for granted and changed the rules of ownership (from communal / common property to private property) and it benefitted only those who understood the regime change in property rights.  Individuals and companies of the West or of the past colonial rules with knowledge advantages in extraction of mineral resources took control of these resources.  After independence, most of their colonial masters backed corrupt and undemocratic governments so that the flow of benefit continues. Moreover, bankers around the globe facilitated the corrupt officials of these governments (taking advantages of loose financial rules in these countries) to transfer billions of dollars out of Africa to Europe and America in their personal accounts.
These practices would have never changed but when China and India, specially China, started showing economic strengths inside Africa using their purchasing power in minerals resources, the Western world understood their faults.  Chinese involvement inside Africa has been a tricky one.  Instead of controlling the governments and officials, China decided to engage them in building infrastructure of these countries in close cooperation with government agencies (not private companies owned by rulers/officials).  As a result, money began to stay within the country (despite corruption) and also income of the governments started increasing.
Some might argue that this too will benefit China, as it would strengthen their resource trading ability with China.  However, new infrastructure (particularly transportation infrastructure) in the country literally unleashed economic activities within their economies.  One cannot imagine the highways being built by Chinese to link Mombasa to Lagos (of course, under a UN plan).  As I was talking to my taxi driver – he was saying – Chinese builds better roads. He was referring to the new highways built by Chinese and he was pretty happy with the quality.  Clearly, you can see the mindset of people.
Trends in Sino-African relationship are different than that of Afro-European or Afro-American relationships.  China (also India) sees Africa both as a supplier of resources and as a potential buyer of cheap Chinese products.  Europe and America never developed their relationship in this way.  So, their investment was mostly resource-centric while Chinese and Indian investment in Africa is market-centric.  Both China and India see a benefit with growth in Africa economies, which was not the case while Europe and America was building their relationships.
Finally, China and also India are less involved in the local political game plan of dividing nations, or creating new nations or changing governments.  They have built their relationship based on pure economic interest and who ever in power it should continue to grow.  I do hope the western world understands the tipping point clearly and change their rules of engagement with Africa and poorer countries in Asia. If you want to know why do I want this?  The answer is simple – values like democracy, human rights and liberalism are still cherished social targets of any nation, and in this the West has shown the path to the world.

Chretien, Africa and The Willing Partners

By Philip Shaw MSc.

Years ago (1987) I took Dr A.K. Enamul Haque to a lecture at Peter Clark Hall at the University of Guelph (Ontario).  The guest speaker was a Canadian private citizen by the name of Jean Chretien, a lawyer from Shawinigan, Quebec.  Dr. Haque of course is still a close friend today, but back in those days, he was green to Canadian life.  He was with me everywhere, trying out the nuances of our world.  He said you me, “Who is Jean Chretien?”  I told him quickly, he’s going to be the next Prime Minister of Canada!  He said what!  I told him, just come with me.
Long story short, I took Enamul to the lecture that night and a few short years later Jean Chretien became the Prime Minister of Canada, serving from 1993 to 2004.  He was a private citizen at that time and remarkably, Enamul and I got time to chat with him after his speech was over.

Fast-forward several years.  Jean Chretien was in Africa speeding down a dirt road with his delegation along with his Nigerian hosts.  The destination was a Nigerian village where Canada was providing funding to ensure clean water for some villagers.  He made a speech at the village where he talked about providing clean water for the area.  His thinking was 1st things 1st, and clean water goes a long way to curing a lot of problems.

We all know how water is important.  However it was the 2nd part of the speech that resonated with me.  Jean Chretien talked about if we raised Africa up that eventually they would turn around and buy the products that the Western world is producing. He wanted to turn around the chronic problems that Africans have and was throwing it back on the West by saying if we help them now they will help us later and in a very big way.  Is so true.  I’ve never forgotten that statement.

You might say that Jean Chretien took a page from the market centric approach that China and India are taking with Africa.  It is true; we are a long way away from Africa being a world superpower buying goods from the West.  However, it is entirely reasonable to look at the Chinese and Indian investment as a very good thing for Africa and something that may pay dividends down the road.  Jean Chretien was talking about the same types of things, but in a different way.  Canada continues to invest in Africa but with very paltry aid budgets.

It is not only China and India, which are investing in Africa.  As part of the Pro-Savana deal signed last year, Brazilian farmers are headed to Mozambique to help that country increase its agricultural production.  News of that kind jilted me, as I’ve always known about African agricultural production potential but this venture seem to add up.  The Brazilians and the Mozambicans have a shared colonial and common language as well as climate and terrain.  For instance, northern Mozambique and Brazil’s vast central savanna, the Cerrado, are very similar.  The Brazilian Cerrado, once a pioneer region has been transformed into an agricultural powerhouse over the last 30 years.

The Pro-Savana deal signed by the Brazilian and Mozambican agricultural research institutes will cede 6 Million hectares of land in the northern regions of Mozambique to Brazilian farmers for $13 per hectare. There will also be some assistance from a Japanese international cooperation agency.  The bottom line for the Mozambicans is to boost agricultural production in a very big way, Brazil style.

Does that mean someday southern Africa may be just like Brazil agriculturally?  I know.  That’s a stretch, but years ago I was standing on the other side of the world in an Australian soybean field, asking the same things about Brazil.

It’s interesting when Dr Haque says, “I do hope the western world understands the tipping point clearly and change their rules of engagement with Africa and poorer countries in Asia.  It’s a great theory, but with the West’s current economic problems, will it happen?  Or will countries like Brazil, Argentina, Russia, India and China fill the void?  From Africa’s perspective, would it make a difference?
That’s where democracy, human rights and liberalism come in.  It probably does make a difference, but when you have so far to go, like Africa does, you’ll take the willing partner, wherever that may be.

A.K. Enamul Haque Ph.D.
With Philip Shaw M.Sc.

Osama Bin Laden was killed by the order of President Barak Obama in the morning of April 29, 2011.  The US Navy’s elite team was able to kill Osama Bin Laden at a point-blank distance in his hideout in Abbottabad, Pakistan.  According to reports, the US Navy suffered no causalities.  They captured him un-armed and killed him in front of his wife and daughter.  The report of killing Osama Bin Laden generated enormous energy and many around the world (no to speak of the Americans) for the moment considered that the war against terrorism is won.  The global popularity rating of President Obama is definitely up and this will surely benefit him in his bid for re-election.

There is other side of the coin too.  The US and its sophisticated army were chasing this person for the last 10 years.  The motivation for this is that he was involved in the 9/11 attack on the twin towers and that he should be held and justice should be delivered.  His involvement was, according to US sources, unquestionable and so the US government took the largest initiatives in their history to chase one individual for year after year.  For the past decade a million people in Iraq and Afghanistan were killed to find him.  According to Obama “Justice has been done”.  He was referring to slaying of Bin Laden in Abbottabad by the Navy Seals and it was his way of delivering justice by the Americans!  Many in the world are now questioning the event.  The Archbishop of Canterbury is possibly the first western person who publicly revealed his discomfort on the killing of an unarmed person and according to him “justice was not seen to be done”.   Today (May 11) Bin Laden’s son asked a question – “Why an unarmed man was not arrested and tried in a court of law so that truth is revealed to the people of the world?”

Many others had also asked similar questions in the past few weeks, which reveals to me that our “good sense” has started speaking. In fact, Phil was the first person who asked me about this a few days ago after he had heard that Bin Laden was killed and he was not armed at that time.  There are many killings in the world where we could not go to the bottom.  Truth is very difficult to find and in many cases we remain happy if justice is done.  “An eye for an eye” is not justice, it is barbarism.  A trial in the court of law is how civilized persons deal with crimes and criminals. I feel very sorry for degradation of our minds as human beings. Crowds and mobs often do not behave properly in any society but our leaders should have shown some degree of moral courage and maturity before calling an eye for an eye, a justice.

Finally, our Rapid Action Battalion killed about 700 people in the past two years in Bangladesh and many people in Bangladesh are uneasy about it despite the fact that this force was primarily killing criminals without trial.  Yesterday (May 10), Human Rights Watch, an US-based NGO’s Asia Director Brad Adams during his trip to Dhaka said, “A death squad is roaming in the streets of Bangladesh and the government does not appear to be doing anything to stop it.”  Government’s reaction is also apparently clear.  Our Home Minister said in her reaction “RAB do not kill anyone, but shoot only when criminals do”.  You can also feel that the government paid very little attention to this call and on the contrary the home minister could now boldly justify the actions.  Killing can be justified too!  To me a civilized person only justifies killing with proper trial.  Accidental or deliberate assault on unarmed persons even during war is tantamount to crimes against humanity. Obama’s action has now licensed such killing and in many parts of the world it could be used to justify repression.  This will surely reduce the moral strength of the western countries in the future global world as a saviour of democracy and rule of law.

Delivering justice cannot simply be done through killing someone by labelling him/her as a terrorist – even if he is.  If it happens then judiciary become redundant. It will have no use and it delivers nothing.

Osama Bin Laden and the Justice of 9/11
By Philip Shaw M.Sc.
If there has ever been a public enemy number one in the United States it is Osama bin Laden.  I am not old enough to remember Adolf Hitler, but I have heard more than one commentary from the United States describing the death of Osama bin Laden in the same way as the death of Adolf Hitler.  I cannot imagine Adolf Hitler on trial in Nuremberg, just like I cannot imagine Osama bin Laden on trial at the world criminal Court in The Hague.  The moment the US Seal team took off from Afghanistan on its way to Abbottabad, Pakistan, Osama bin Laden was a dead man.

In the years in which I have known Enamul, we have shared in many world events.  For instance I can remember desperately faxing Enamul when the news of the failed coup happened in the former Soviet Union.  I can also remember other times surrounding the fall of the Soviet Union and of course 911.  So a few weeks ago when I first learned that the President would be speaking at 11:30p.m. In the evening, I knew something was up.  Soon, my Twitter feed lit up with the news that the Americans had killed Osama bin Laden.  This was several minutes before President Obama announced it on television.  I desperately tried to get through to Enamul with the news.  It certainly was big news.  I know in my household it was like the ground shook.

Of course, it sure sounded messy when the details came out regarding the raid on his compound.  I had always expected Osama bin Laden to be taken dead.  The reason I expected this was because I’ve always believed heavily armed guards surrounded him.  So when I heard that Navy Seals had landed in a compound, had one helicopter crash, had killed bin Laden and then left without a trace, it didn’t quite add up to me.  It didn’t sound like he was heavily guarded at all.  In fact then I found out that he was armed but did resist.  What is that all about?

Of course, we will never know.  On this side of the Atlantic there is no sympathy for Osama bin Laden.  I’ve said it many times in this column that people in the Western Hemisphere have no concept of world conflict taking place here.  The events of the day on September 11, 2001 fractured our sense of stability like never before.  So when it was announced that Osama bin Laden was dead, it did not surprise me that crowds gathered outside the White House and in the streets of New York City as well as many other places here and cheered the news.  Nobody cared about the circumstances of his death.  They only cared that the bastard that caused 911 had finally got his justice.

I understand completely how Enamul might consider the example of killing an unarmed Osama bin Laden as barbarism.  Killing anybody unarmed is unethical but in a world with no scruples, Osama bin Laden was low rent. His killing whether it was unarmed or not is completely irrelevant in the Western Hemisphere based on what he represented.  Osama bin Laden in Western eyes on this side of the Atlantic was in a class with Adolf Hitler himself.  There will be no tears for him in North America.

Still, it troubles me on how it was done.  I do understand where Enamul comes from when he talks about the Rapid Action Battalion in Bangladesh and its indiscriminate killing of 700 people.  The government has justified these killings in Bangladesh.  It is very difficult because when you’re dealing with criminals, sometimes justice gets very messy.  Yes I agree with Enamul when you justify killing, the judiciary becomes redundant, and it will have no use and deliver nothing.

The question is in the case of Osama bin Laden is that truly relevant?  Or in this case with the world’s most famous terrorist in the crosshairs, is that all conveniently pushed to the side.  We will never know exactly what happened, when the door opened and Osama bin Laden stared squarely into the face of the US Navy Seals.  Clearly, it was over quickly.  His demise was like Independence Day on this side of the Atlantic.  The debate on how just the end was will surely live on into the future.

With Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque Ph.D
United International University, Dhaka Bangladesh

The world has gone crazy? That’s the way I have felt ever since the start of the Western intervention into the civil insurrection and Libya.  In fact, at the time I was on vacation in southern Florida and when I heard the news I could hardly believe it.

Of course it did not take me long to learn that the Canadian effort over Libya would be a joint venture with the coalition that included our friends in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and other places.  Still, I thought it completely crazy.  Why do we feel it is so important as Canadians to send our men and women and equipment to impose and no fly zone over the country engaged in civil war?  I have no answer for that question because 5 million people are dead in a Civil War in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the West doesn’t care.  So suddenly sending a Western contingent over an Arab country to defeat a rogue leader didn’t make much sense to me.  People in the Congo bleed too.

Of course we can argue about when it all started.  We all know that Muammar Gaddafi has had a checkered history in world affairs.  For instance at one time he was thought of as a supporter of terrorism, responsible for the bombing of Pan Am 103.  However, he changed his ways and the West embraced him over the last five years.  We saw audiences with Qaddafi, which included Tony Blair, Paul Martin, US Secretary of State as well as the Italian prime minister.  He was embraced for changing his ways but when opposition rose up within Libya, some of these Western leaders turned on him.  He fought back against the opposition and was winning, so that is when the West stepped in and lost their marbles.

I in no way support the killing of civilians in Libya.  However, I in no way support the killing of 5 million people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo either.  In Libya for whatever reason the West made a hastened decision to do something about tyranny and in other parts of the world they do nothing.  Where is the consistency?  Where is the justice?  What is the endgame in this craziness?  How about all the other hot beds of tyranny in the world such as Darfur, the DR Congo and Ivory Coast?  This reminds me of Kosovo while Rwanda careened into a bloodbath.

So that is my view.  I think we have completely blown it.  So now we see pictures of carnage in Libya where Western jets have destroyed buildings.  Meanwhile Col. Qaddafi controls most of his country and what happens next?  There is no endgame except greater tyranny.  Somewhere along the way somebody must’ve forgot how messy it can be when you take sides in the Civil War.  How Canada got involved is beyond me.

The backtracking has started.  The Americans obviously have the most gifted military force on earth.  So initially they took the lead in the military operations over Libya.  Sure, France and other countries took part in combat operations but now the lead goes over to NATO with a Canadian general to boot.  France and Turkey were opposed to NATO taking the lead in the operation.  It seems that everybody else is standing around hoping the whole situation will go away.  This is nuts.

I suppose to be honest this would be a bit personal.  If you follow me on Twitter you will know that I have a good friend in Libya.  In fact he was a good friend of not only me, but also my good friend and co-writer of this column, Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque.  I have heard from him a couple times since the crisis started but we have lost contact.  I have asked Enamul a few times what we can do for him.  He has asked me the same thing.  You never know what life is going to bring you.

Libya is clearly a tragedy.  It has a relatively small population, which was relatively well off compared to many North African nations.  Now with two sides fighting and bombs from NATO, it makes the road back so much harder.  I was with him the night that the Americans bombed Libya in the 1980s.  I can just imagine how he feels now.  The world has gone crazy.   I just hope he is okay.  God speed my friend.

Peace-maker or trouble-maker: a big question ahead for UN.

Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque PhD.

The western world has gone nuts with Libya.  It has got itself involved in it without a clear objective, without a clear strategy and, of course, without a clear mind.  The only difference is that this time the team is led by UK and France and not by the traditional western leader the US.  I believe every one of us have been following this story and the story of Arabs uprising in many parts of the Arab world. However, like Phil none of us knew why France and UK had taken such a hasty and nasty decision to lead the killing fields in Libya.

There are many arguments for being involved during a civil war but there is no argument to begin a civil war. There are many arguments to defend while feeling threatened but there is no argument to attack without being threatened.  There are many arguments to kill with trial but there is no argument to kill without a trial. But unfortunately that is what is going on in Libya.

The horse-trading is also apparently clear.  In order to prove the point that Western powers are no doing it alone, Qatar – a tiny nation in the Gulf has sent two fighter jets, which could not even land in Greece. Emirates are also supposedly participating in the rage against the Libyan leader but we have not seen any sign of it.  On paper, they are participating.  The West has learnt a lesson from the past involvement in Iraq, and this time there are no western boots on ground.  The result is a chaos and possibly a prolonged civil war.

In the vote at the UN Security Council the voting behavior of the member nations are quite illuminating.  10 voted for and 5 abstained. My biggest surprise is the actual text passed by the Security Council.  The resolution was outrageous – as it said – “the Council authorized Member States, acting nationally or through regional organizations or arrangements, to take all necessary measures to protect civilians under threat of attack in the country”.  Luckily, Asian countries did not support the resolution and I, as an Asian, feel relieved that they did not vote for this kind of atrocious text.

The war is not going to be over soon according to my reading.  It will drag on for some time and meanwhile, the West might want to arm the rebel groups in order to capture Tripoli.  It is not going to be easy in a country where loyalty is divided between tribal lines.  NATO while imposing a so-called No Fly Zone must also be careful to ensure that their involvement is kept within the limit under which civilian deaths are avoided.  Before their involvement hardly 100 Libyans died and people will be counting how many had died after the UN and NATO involvement.

Finally, fuelling a civil war has never been a motto of the UN and it should be careful of not doing so.  If it does, the involvement of UN troops will be in question by the people around the world and it will create a bigger problem for the whole world.  The blue-hat soldiers should be revered around the world as peacekeepers and not as troublemakers.  Hopefully, Ban Ki Moon understands his responsibility as an Asian and as the Head of UN.

With Philip Shaw M.Sc.

Somalia has been on the radar of many nations in 2010 due to increased attacks on the ships traveling through the Suez Canal.  This is one of the few African countries, which is less understood by us.  According to my reading, there has been three Somalias in the past; British Somalia, Italian Somalia and French Somalia (Djibouti).  The British and Italian Somalia got its independence in 1960 and formed what is known as Somalia today.  This country is without a central government since 1991.

Under the veil of UNOSOM, the US attempted to restore a government in 1992 but it failed miserably.  In 1994 and after this the country has been literally without any active government. Ethiopia, with covert support from United States entered in Somalia in 2006 and formed a unified government.  But the government also collapsed in 2008 and Ethiopia finally retreated and left Somalia.  In 2009, with support from the African Union a new coalition government has been formed in Somalia.

This lesson on the history of Somalia is not an interesting issue to us.  What is interesting is the increased operations of the Somali pirates in the Gulf of Eden, which have brought Somalia in our radar in 2010.
The situation is difficult because big nations are now putting their own naval fleets near Somalia in an attempt to prevent piracy.  The US, UK, France, Russia, Japan, Korea, China and even India have not joined hands to placed their naval commands in international waters near Somalia.  But the attacks are continuing.  According to one report maritime piracy cost the global economy 7-12 billion US$ in 2010 and 95% of it is due to Somalia.  Recently, the Somali pirates have captured a Bangladesh ship with 26 sailors on board.  This is a bad news for the families of the sailors as Bangladesh can neither pay for nor can rescue these sailors.  Families of the sailors have recently requested the government to intervene but with no government in power, this is going to be a difficult job.

On the other hand, the coalition government in Somalia was trying to pass a law to make piracy illegal and to put them under trial in Somalia but it could not be passed in the parliament because many argued that these [pirates] are their national heroes guarding the Somali water in absence of any formal naval forces.  According to the Somali parliamentarians, these people are protecting Somali water against foreigners who are plundering fish from their territory.

Recently, I was in a private discussion with a few friends and one of them asked me a question, which made me wander about these events.  According to his theory, the pirates are simply the pawns of mafia groups harbored in Europe who actually receive the ransom money and only a small amount is transferred to Somalis.  He concluded this based on his observation [on videos] on the health of the Somali pirates, their clothing, etc.   He did not see any improvement in their health over the past 4-5 years of piracy despite the fact that they have reportedly received billions of dollars from ship owners.  He thinks that the real culprits are not Somalian and perhaps are using the brave Somali fishermen with a meager amount of the pie.  According to him, most of the money is also transferred in Europe! His observations left me without any argument.  I still wonder if it is true!

Somalia, Pirates and My Time on the Indian Ocean

When I first received East-West from Dr. Haque this month I immediately got on Twitter and ask a friend of mine about Somali pirates acting on behalf of European syndicates.  He got back to me and said he didn’t know much about that, but he considered that Al Qaeda was the beneficiary of much of this ransom money.  Regardless of who is behind it, there is a lot of money being exchanged and it obviously goes to criminals.

The economic impact of pirate activity around the world is estimated to be about $10 billion annually.  It is a huge problem and when you’re dealing with a rogue state like Somalia it is costing the world’s seafaring nations quite a bit of money.  I was aware that there was a ship from Bangladesh, which had been captured.  It did not surprise me that Bangladesh could not do anything about it.  I’m sure from the pirate’s perspective, if they could pick and choose which ship was captured, it would be from a rich Western country.

Interestingly enough when I posted my comments on Twitter they were picked up by a niece of mine who is doing her PhD in mathematics.  She is a wonderful young woman, bright as a dollar and I’m sure she could dazzle me with her mathematics acumen. She actually suggested that I should read this http://boingboing.net/2011/01/31/math-versus-pirates.html.   In the article, applied mathematician James Hansen talks about putting together a computer model of pirate behavior with the US Naval research laboratory.  According to the article the project combines data on wind, waves and currents with intelligence gathered by informants, surveillance and other means on pirate habits: how far their small skiffs can travel; their assault tactics; and the timing of their forays.

When I read the article I started to think about my background as an agricultural economist.  One thing that we are trained in is to either maximize profit or minimize cost using very applied high-end statistical mathematical analysis.  Now it is laughable to think that I could even do that anymore.  However basically, you try to use all your resources efficiently and this is calculated through a mathematical model.  I did it back in the day; my niece doing her PhD obviously still does it.

It certainly can’t hurt to use math to fight pirates.  However when those small boats bear down on a cargo ship, a quadratic equation probably doesn’t do much to defend you.   I’m sure it is a very frightening experience.

Unbeknownst to most of you I’m sure, your loyal scribe has sailed the Indian Ocean.  Of course I did it with my esteemed colleague Dr. Haque.  In fact I have done it more than once off the shores of SW Bangladesh near Katka and a couple more times traveling from Teknaf in southeast Bangladesh to St. Martins Island, the most southernmost point in Bangladesh.

My first journey to St. Martins Island was on a ship that resembled a pirate’s boat.  It was made of wood and when the waves started coming over the top of the ship, it was very alarming.  In fact I wondered what I was doing facedown on a pirate ship in the Indian Ocean.  Of course the other thought I had was of all the pirates on the Indian Ocean looking for somebody like me!  I never expressed that to Enamul, but I always thought a passenger ship in the Indian Ocean was vulnerable.

So does this piracy ever come to an end?  Certainly in the short term with Somalia being a broken state, it doesn’t look like it.  The forbidden fruit of money floating by their shores certainly is enticing to the pirates.  Surely, there is a relationship with Al Qaeda or maybe even the syndicates in Europe.

It is a big ocean out there.  I have stood on the shores of the Indian Ocean many times and I must attest it is one of my favorite things to do.  However, it is entirely obvious at least off the coast of Somalia, our world has a big problem.  The $10 billion annual cost of piracy eventually is born by those who can least afford it.  Maybe eventually Somalia will be able to police it themselves.   Needless to say, in 2011 that seems so far away. In the meantime hijacking on the high seas will surely continue.

With Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque Ph.D

We had a little bit of a hiccup with East-West this fall as the 15,000 mile separation between the authors does cause a good interruption once in a while.  I know Dr. Haque has been in London England and Sri Lanka and I’ve been riding a combine.  Interestingly enough, our last edition talked about the World Cup of soccer and in the intervening time one soccer nation captured the world’s attention with the mining accident near Copiagpo Chile.

If you want a wonderful recap of the mining accident in Chile go to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Copiapó_mining_accident.

That link to the Wikipedia website gives an exhaustive account of the $20 million rescue effort to free 33 Chilean miners from entombment.  I remember very clearly when I first heard about the mining accident in Chile and how difficult the situation it must have been.  Whenever I hear of mining accidents, hope is in such short supply.  So when I saw the first indication from the Chilean mine that 33 miners were still alive I at least held out some hope that they might see the surface of the earth again.

I had my first experience with going underground into a mine earlier this year in Sudbury Ontario.  Northern Ontario is a laboratory for mineral extraction just like much of Canada.  I must admit I was a bit nervous going underground and viewing the mine because what if it caves in.  I think that most of us have had that thought even though most of us are a million miles away from experiencing anything like that. Needless to say when I did get to the Sudbury mine shafts, it was about as spooky as I wanted it to be.  Mother Earth is what it is but I prefer to stay on its surface.

The rescue of the 33 Chilean miners was a very good new story.  Sure there are issues, legal issues with what went on and they are playing out right now. Of course the other thing that is playing out is celebrity.  With 1 billion people having watched the rescue of the 33 miners their popularity is worldwide.  There are even some people who say the miners may have came out of their own personal hell but now they are headed into another type of hell badgered by the specter of celebrity.  Of course if you are working for miners wages a few months ago and now you have the possibility of making a lot of money just through personal appearances I suppose you could put up with that.  There celebrity status in Chile will surely know no end.

So I will let it play out how the world considers the Chilean 33 as we move forward.  One discussion that Dr. Haque I have had through the years is how the world doesn’t know South America.  I have talked about this many times before where the world’s headlines are full of things going on in regions of the world that have “strategic interest”.  For instance, Western newscasts, lead to stories on the Middle East even though the people that live there are a tiny minority within this world.  The world’s media usually completely ignores South America and parts of Africa.  For instance if there was not a Chilean mine accident this past summer, you can bet you’d never hear about Chile.

In my own case, I have very good reason to be interested in South America.  As you all know I write and speak about world commodity markets.  It just so happens that Brazil and Argentina has the world’s largest production area of soybeans.  I have been invited to go to South America many times but of course have not been there.  Last year Dr. Haque invited me to go to Tanzania.  He had a student that wanted him to go there.  I could not go there but I’m wondering if the both of us should go to South America.  It is one part of the world that both of us don’t have very much experience with.

That will have to change.  One reason it needs to change is because of the increasing influence that South America is having on the world economy.  For instance the importance of Brazil to the world’s economy is growing just like China, India and Russia.  Last year Brazil tried to broker a deal between Iran and Turkey regarding nuclear technology.  It was almost like the worlds media didn’t know how to deal with that.

If the Chile mine accident did one thing other than shining a light on South America it helped us focus on the human race.  The story of the miners could have taken place anywhere and of course the success made it that much better.  In the future we’ll surely hear much more about South America.  Let’s hope this time it will be just as inspirational.

Chilean showcase on rescue – lesson for others
Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque Ph.D

Like all of you, we were also glued to the television screen watching the rescue operation for the 33 miners who were literally buried underground for about 66 days. Chile rarely appears in the global media.  The last time it appeared on channels around the world was when the government of Chile wanted Pinochet, the ex-president of the country for crimes against violation of human rights during his reign.

South America is far away from Asia and so it is likely that we often forget about them.  However, problems in Bolivia, football in Brazil, Maradona of Argentina, drugs in Colombia, comments of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela, Cuba, all appears in our media whenever the situation arises. It is true however, that we never watch them so intensely as we did during the rescue mission for the 33 miners.

The plan, the execution of the plan, the media coverage, and the arrangements all made it like a well rehearsed media event.  It made the Chilean government a hero and made the country and its citizens proud of themselves.

It has also given others a hope that any nation can do it if they mean it. In most similar events, the government, and the mining company and in some cases even the family members would have given up hope for finding them alive.  The biggest shock to me was to discover that they were still alive!  After this, what Chile did is simply a miracle.

As Phil has rightly mentioned that the mining accident and the rescue operation has portrayed a shining South America onto the world map.  What I liked the most is the planned execution of the final events of the rescue operation – each of the mining workers came out cheerful, well dressed and well composed in their mood. It showed the intelligence of the government to provide a more mature glimpse of Chile to a billion viewers around the world.  To all of them, I say long live Chile.

Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque Ph.D

with Philip Shaw M.Sc
June-July was the month of World Cup for the whole world.  When I came first in Canada, I was stunned to see that Canadians also worry about the World Cup but not in football (soccer in North America) but in hockey.  That was a truly Canadian game.  But to learn that Canadians are not even curious about it when the whole world is crazy about it was a surprise.  However, I do remember watching the World Cup in the Grad Lounge at Guelph but most of us were from Asia, Europe and Latin America.  The Americans and Canadians were mostly ignoring it while we were tense to find out who won or lost.
Just to give an idea about the craze for the world cup in Dhaka and also in Sri Lanka (where I visited in the first week of July) I thought of writing this note.   In Bangladesh, the total population was mostly divided into two camps – Brazilian and Argentine fans.  Flags of Brazil and Argentina were everywhere atop of every building throughout Bangladesh.  Flags of Germany, British, Spanish, Italy and France were also there but they were only a few.  I believe nearly a million flags of the first two countries were sold in Bangladesh.
The power supply has been a constant threat to our amusement during the game and so the government warned the electric supply companies to ensure power supply during the game – mostly from evening to 2am.  Industries were asked to schedule their shifts out of this time or to face a power cut.  On several occasions, power offices were attacked by mobs to display their anger for outage of power during games.  The threat of such actions was higher during a game where either Argentina or Brazil was playing.
Brazil has been the historical favorite in Bangladesh due to Pele – the legendary football player.  The Argentine craze came after it won the world cup with Maradona  (not sure if my Canadian readers would know him!) in 1982.  I believe Maradona won the cup against England and it was right after the Argentine defeat with UK in the Falkland war.  Ever since, younger generations of Bangladeshis became Argentine fans.  Interestingly, Bangladeshi cricket teams were playing with England at the same time and I did not see people wanting to watch that game during this time.  So much is for our obsession in the football.
I went to Sri Lanka in the first week of July.  The world cup was on.  The Sri Lankan cricket team is famous and they have special passion for it.  Sri Lankan teams were also playing cricket at that time with India (I guess).  Our Sri Lankan and Indian friends were definitely keeping an eye on it but their mind was boiling with passion for football too.  I had a friend rescheduled their flights to ensure that during the Final they are at home to watch the game.  It so happened that my flight out of Colombo was during the time of the Final.  We watched the most of the game in the airport.  Airport authorities played the games everywhere inside the airport.  However, we could not finish watching the game before boarding.  Our pilot (of Thai airways) was aware of our interest in the game and at 2am he announced that Spain won the cup.
32 countries of the world sent teams to play football in South Africa this time.  The process of selection was rigorous too.  Every continent was represented in the World Cup and unlike other World Cups; it is played once in every four years.  It takes two years to arrange matches for qualifying for the World Cup.  This year from Africa (the host continent), Ghana played well.  They were unlucky to lose a game, which they should have won.  Brazil was knocked out of the game by the Netherlands and the Germans knocked out Argentina.  From North America, team USA played a beautiful game.  Uruguay played well too.  They had one very gifted player and they should be proud of him, Forlain.  However, credit goes to the Spanish team who played a very good game with minimum number of fouls and deserves to be the Champion.  We will to see another vibrant world cup in 2014 in Brazil.

To North America, What’s All the Fuss About?
By Philip Shaw M.Sc.

I don’t get it.  Most of us in North America are the same.  Soccer is so boring.  To the typical North American, how can sane people watch a game seemingly forever with the score 0-0?  Hardly anybody in North America can, so “soccer” or “football” as the rest of the world puts it, languishes on the fringes.  Every four years there is a pique of interest as the rest of the world goes crazy and North Americans try to be good sports.

It is not like we don’t play soccer.  We do.  In fact soccer throughout North America is one of the biggest activities for young people.  In places like California there are youth soccer leagues in the spring summer fall and winter and the rest of North America during the summertime.  Even in the small community where I hail from, Dresden Ontario there is a youth soccer program.  All of this should be taken as an affirmation that soccer is more popular than it used to be.  However, at the end of the day, when these kids grow up is the other major sports in North America that catches their attention.

I also played soccer when I was young but unfortunately just like all the other sports I tried hard but was never really good at it.  We also have to play in the cold and the soccer ball was really hard.  That combined with the fact I couldn’t run very fast made me lose interest in soccer very quickly.  At that time which was about 35 to 40 years ago soccer was a really niche sport.  In North America now, it is much bigger than that but still ranks behind NFL football, NBA basketball, NHL hockey, Maj. League baseball and all the college sports.  That doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room for soccer.

I like to say it’s just one of those things. And since it’s always been very clear to us that soccer in the World Cup were off the chart in the rest of the world.  Needless to say, there is nothing that mirrors the enthusiasm, which Enamul writes about.  In Canada and the United States you will surely see some fans of the soccer nations out on the streets but it is usually just the bigger cities and they are in the minority.  Yes, soccer is a great game but after 60 minutes when the score 00 or 1 to 1, North Americans lose interest in.

I have a very good friend who is now about 45 years old.  He has played soccer all his life and loves the game.  It has been a wonderful game for him because it has kept him in shape over the years.  In 1994 he and a bunch of his friends ventured to Chicago to watch the FIFA World Cup.  To him, it was Nirvana, an once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to see the worlds best soccer players.  I was very happy for him because he loved the game so much.  He had a great time and I’m sure he continues to watch World Cup action with great interest.

At the end of the day in 1994, Brazil beat Italy 3-2 in a penalty shootout.  In the second half it was completely obvious that Italy was playing for the shootout, not being able to compete with Brazil.   So at the end of this huge tournament, it boiled down to a shoot-out. It seems so crass to me.  Italy’s attitude on the soccer field seemed so uncompetitive.  To me it was an example of why North Americans don’t embrace the game.

In many ways it is a North American thing.  Another example that you can find is the game of cricket.  Every country in the British Commonwealth plays cricket except you guessed it Canada.  I have traveled to many of these countries where cricket is played.  I remember one time being in Hobart Tasmania over the weekend and all there was to watch on TV was cricket.  I found this quite frustrating because even though it was on all weekend, nothing happened.  Years later I had friends from the British Caribbean play a match at the University of Guelph.  The match lasted all day and once again, and nothing happened.

So I say to the rest of the world, be patient with us.  In North America, we just don’t get it.  Soccer is the beautiful game, World Cup and all.  Maybe, just maybe we’ll come around someday.

with Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque PhD

Some things are just hard to picture.  Over the last few weeks I have watched the events in Bangkok unfold and wondered about my friend.  I’ve never been to Bangkok Thailand.  However, my friend Enamul is in Bangkok often.  He goes there for meetings on a regular basis as it is only about a 120 minute plane ride from Dhaka.  So with him there at the height of the violence in Bangkok over the last few weeks, my concern was heightened.  I couldn’t picture him among the violent streetscapes, which are pictured on television.

It just so happened that I found myself with time on my hands during this period.  So I watched my computer light up on several days with Dr. Haque on the other end of a Skype call.  We make a habit of chatting when he is in a foreign capital as usually the Internet connection is quite good and Skype works quite well.  So I answered his calls, my first question was how was he doing and did he know what was going on in Bangkok?

He answered in the style that he always answers, there is no problem where he is and that it is in Bangkok city.  There is no trouble here.  Enamul was at the Asian Institute of Technology 30 kilometres outside of the city of Bangkok.  When I talked to him he almost was seemingly unaware of the violence that was going on in the city.  However, on the other side of the world we watched together a BBC news report on the violence in the city.  I think everybody at this end was quite relieved to know that Enamul was safe.  I’m sure that his family back in Bangladesh was wondering about the same thing.

Of course I asked him at that time what some of the Thai people were thinking about the “redshirt demonstrators”?   He told me that he did not have a lot of contact with the regular Thai people and the ones that he did have didn’t say too much.  He said it was almost a cultural thing as in many Asian people don’t like to describe some of the chaos that is going on in their home country.  He was at a conference, which was mainly put on by foreigners.  So his exposure to the political violence in Bangkok thankfully was minimal.

That was the good news.  However, the daily images from the television showed a much more violent story.  Thailand in the West has an almost idyllic reputation.  When people think of Thailand, they think of the beaches Phunket, the gentle nature of the people and of course I’m sure there are many people who think about the food.  Needless to say, increasingly that image of Thailand is changing as the country has shown an increasing tendency for instability over the last few years because of protest, a weak democracy and corruption.  The latest manifestation of the “red shirt” rebellion in downtown Bangkok was one of the bloodiest stains on that country’s reputation.   Increasingly, peaceful and tranquil Thailand is losing that reputation.

Some might argue that the political instability centers squarely in Bangkok and not in the surrounding countryside other than the north and northwest of the country.  I will let Dr. Haque handle that one.  Bangkok is one of those exotic places on the world stage that demands press coverage.  So when the yellow shirts took over the Bangkok airport and the red shirts staged a rebellion in downtown, it surely grabs the world’s attention.  It surely is a unique Thai situation because shirt collar has never been a distinction on political factions around the world, at least to what I could remember.

Protest comes in many forms and the Thai example is truly unique for that part of the world.  I know in Canada I have actually led protests on Parliament Hill, the seat of the Canadian government.  I have done that with 10,000 protesters in front of me.  However, I can remember very clearly the extent of cooperation between protesters, police and even the government, which we were protesting.  It was truly a Canadian example of how we do things here.  Unfortunately, what took place in Thailand over the last few weeks has become increasingly common of how they do things there too.  Or maybe I should say to be fair in Bangkok.

The challenge I suppose in many ways is to spread the wealth between Bangkok and other parts of the country.  Enamul will surely be back in Bangkok many more times.  It’s not a second home for him but he is there often so he should provide a very unique look into what happened over the last few weeks.

Bangkok Violence – the other side of the story
Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque  PhD

Before landing in Bangkok I was aware that the city was in trouble.  Its main business district is out of reach for visitors and the tension between governments and the Red Shirts was reaching a point of no return.  My mother, brothers and sisters, of course, my family members (wife and son) were all very tense because of this.  However, organizers of the course (where I was teaching) told us that it is no problem in their part of the city.  Luckily, it was not my first trip and so I knew that I could avoid the downtown area by using the freeways and could reach the Asian Institute of Technology without trouble.  I was not tense at all.

As I arrived in Bangkok, things seemed to be quite normal for me.  Taxi drivers were there; buses were there to take visitors.  People were at the airport to receive visitors and I did not see any tension in their faces either.   The following day, we visited a local retail market (weekend market) and things were normal too.  Two/three days later, the BBC told us that Thai military is zooming in and a possible crackdown is imminent.  Since I could not speak Thai, Thai channels are off limits for me.

At the conference center, people are busy as usual but we decided to talk.  Most of them are not like us, and they were not ready to talk about their political situation in front of foreigners! Luckily, one of the organizers was staying in the center for a month and she had developed a good working relationship with a few Thai girls at the center.  She was telling me that most of them do not like “Red Shirts”. On the other hand, she also told me that the “Taxi drivers” are with the “Red Shirts”.

You could see the colors in Bangkok about liking and disliking.  White color people were not interested in red shirt (they are happy with the current government) but the blue color people seems to be more sympathetic to them.   The BBC had been telling the same except that they were terming it as more of rural vs. urban divide.  Whatever, may be the case, the silence of the local Bangkok people, the indifference of the general public in Bangkok towards the movement must have frustrated the Red Shirt leaders and the boosted the moral of the government and the Army who later on decided to take on the Red Shirts.

Meanwhile, the local media seemed to be divided too. “The Bangkok Post” seemed to me was favoring the government while “the Nation” was sympathetic to the Red Shirts. You all know the story.  However, what struck me is this, before the day Red Shirt leaders decided to surrender they had a meeting with their followers.  In all calmness they requested their followers to go home – it was a no win situation and they cannot win against an organized force.  They informed them that they can go home freely (without being harassed by the army or police) and that in turn they [the leaders] decided to surrender to the police and face the consequences.  Many of the followers cried and said that they too are ready for the same consequences but the leaders told them not to do so.  Instead they insisted that they should take advantage of the negotiation and go home but remain organized and that the fight is not over yet.  At least 15 other provinces were also involved in this revolt but it was less reported in our media.

The next day amidst the chaos in Bangkok, one picture caught me totally unprepared – a solo Red Shirt worker, a lady, was sitting on a chair in the middle of the podium where the Red Shirts were with a red flag in her hand.  She decided not to go home.

I can see two things out of this chaos and sad events in Bangkok – a) the quality of leadership – who were negotiating a hassle free exit of their followers at the price of their own arrest, and b) the divide between the white and blue color people in their social, cultural and political thinking.

Hopefully, these two groups can come into a common platform and keep the Thai economy alive and competitive.

With Philip Shaw M.Sc.
The recent wave of controversy over wearing of veils by Muslim women in Europe is quite interesting to me.  I am not sure what they are talking about!  There are a few terms used in Muslim world to refer to women’s dress codes.  These are: Hijab, Burqah, Niqab, Jilbab, Chador, Burqini, etc.  Each one of them is considered as a dress for Muslim women and they are not same.  There are a variety of dresses the women wear in various parts of the Muslim world.  Given these varieties of dresses, I am not sure as of today which one is creating all the controversy?  So far my knowledge goes, the controversy started in France when a French white Muslim women wearing burqini entered in a public swimming pool and when she was asked by the pool staff to wear “proper” swim-suit.
Later on several individuals picked up the issue including the Sarkozy government who is now considering a ban on the veil.  The problem is I am not sure which one is the veil?  Which one are they trying to ban?  Ireland has, I believe, recently banned face veil – niqab in public places.  Switzerland has recently banned construction of minaret in Muslim mosques.
All these measures are clearly a sign of restlessness in the western society which I thought have had risen above the values of the past centuries.  I remember, at Guelph, the Muslim students used to gather at the Chapel on Fridays to perform Jummah prayer.  I remember writing this to home and explaining the greatness of western values – the tolerance, whereas in Muslim world religious leaders often talk about tolerance as a great virtue but the society is yet to adopt it in all spheres of their life.
Now the banning of dresses not fit to a society is not uncommon.  India has banned wearing the bikini in public places, many western societies have banned topless dresses for women in public places, and many Muslim societies have banned wearing of western dresses in public places.  All these are in the name of protecting the culture and values of each of the society.  Rarely it was used against any specific religious groups in any country.  This time it is an exception.
Many other cultures in the world also use covering of dresses by women not to speak of the dresses of the Nuns in catholic churches. No country has ever banned this – even in a Muslim country.  Mind it, I am not saying “Islamic dress” to any of the above dresses.  To me the dress is always cultural and people used their cultural values to ensure that it also fits within the religious codes.  In fact, if you look at the Muslim dresses of even men and women around the world, you will find a significant difference among them.  In Bangladesh, for example, you will find a variety of dresses for women.  In fact, the dress my wife chooses to wear is not the same my sister-in-law prefers to wear or my mother prefers to wear.   None of us ever are bothered about it neither we wanted anyone to explain the differences.  Last week, a High Court bench in Dhaka ordered that women are free to choose their dresses and none shall be forced to wear any specific dress (of course, they did not mean that women in Bangladesh are now allowed to wear a bikini in public!).  They were referring to a case related to wearing of burqah in a public place.
The French interpretation for imposition of the ban is to promote French values and culture in France.  I am not sure what does it mean.  Little that I know about culture I understand that it is dynamic – ever changing and always is moving forward.  It cannot be dictated by politicians and by courts.  The more politicians and courts gets involved in it, it is likely to become messy.  It cannot be held constant by laws either.  The Taliban failed, and of course, the French government will fail too.  Hopefully, you all understand the synonyms between the Taliban’s policy on dress code and the current debate in western world about dress codes.  I end this with the following picture of a billboard, which shows how Muslim men and women should dress up in public places during Taliban era.  Have a look at it and then think through the debate on dresses in the West and a new French billboard in Paris!

In the West, It’s About the Perception of Equality
By Philip Shaw M.Sc.

I am unique among my friends and colleagues here in Canada.  I am a farmer in southwestern Ontario Canada.  There is dirt firmly embedded underneath my fingernails.  My days are spent on country roads bereft any population.  Some days are spent without even uttering a word simply because I don’t see anybody.  For most Canadian farmers that is somewhat typical.  Most of our friends are people in our immediate area or our province.

I’m different in a lot of ways just because of my professional obligations as an agricultural economist and writer.  However one thing that separates me from many Canadians is my friendship with many Muslims around the world.  It just so happens that I know a lot of Muslim women in Bangladesh and other places.  So when I see the debate about Muslim women wearing the veil in Western society sometimes I cringe.  If people in Western society would spend time with Muslim women, they might find out how strong they are both in stature and with their opinions.

Enamul openly questions why the veil is so reviled in some Western societies.  I can understand where he is coming from because of his environment.  Women surround him in his family as well as his students.  They are all fashion conscious and dress in the typical styles within the country.  However, when it comes to the veil in Western society it’s not about any of that.  The big problem with women wearing the veil in Western society is about the western values of equality when it comes to women.  In short, men on women equate the veil on Muslim women in Western society with abuse.  It is a symbol so uncommon that the use of the veil can only be construed as a symbol of inequality among the sexes.

In Western society I’m being charitable with that.  In Canada I am embarrassed as a Canadian because the province of Quebec recently enacted a law to ban Muslim women from receiving or delivering public services while wearing a niqab.  Our Prime Minister and the opposition leaders of Canada had joined in supporting that ban.  As a Canadian I’m embarrassed because in this country everybody is welcome to live as they want based on our charter of rights and freedoms.

It must also be said that Western societies xenophobic fixation on women with the veil is based on prejudice.  In Canada it is that way but is not as bad as it is in France, Australia and other places. When you take into account the overt prejudices against Muslims in Western society post-9/11, the veil has become more of a symbol of oppression.  In many ways it brings out the very worst stereotypes about the treatment of Muslim women in places like rural Pakistan and rural Afghanistan.

In other words, there is no room for Muslim women wearing the veil in countries where sexual orientation is wide open and women’s liberation has more to do with sexual choice and sexual freedom is the norm.  I don’t believe that.  However, the entrenched feminist Western styled “women’s agenda” which has been part of liberal culture for over 50 years in countries like the United States, Canada and those of Western Europe never took into account Muslim women wearing the niqab.   When these women show up in western grocery stores or other places, they are targets for abuse and it is not right.

In Western society there is a common buzz phrase in business which says “sex sells”.   What this has meant over the last 50 years in Western society is female exploitation as in more sex and more skin sells more products.  There are millions of examples in our Western cultural discourse.  I face them all the time.  It has become normal.  At the same time when I travel in Muslim lands, it’s not there or at least it’s not public.  It is what it is.

So the mixing of the veil in Western culture has been toxic.  It is certainly exasperated by daily media feeds out of places like Afghanistan or any other Muslim country where all we see are men on the streets. This has been exasperated by sensational examples of Muslim girls who would have tried to break free of their cultural norms being abused by their own families in some Western societies.  There is nothing right about it.

So you can see by both our commentaries the differences between our societies when it comes to Muslim women wearing the veil.  On one side of the divide it is a cultural and fashion statement and on the other it is a symbol of inequality and abuse.  Can the two sides coexist in Western culture and society?  I think so, however, coming together across that divide will be very difficult.

With Dr. A.K. Enamul Haque Ph.D

In Canada last month we were all focused on the Vancouver Olympics. It’s natural for Canadians to be watching winter sports at this time of year.  However one of my favorite pastimes every two years is watching the opening ceremonies of the winter and Summer Olympics.  I like to watch because I enjoy seeing the people of the world getting together in one place all at the same time.  For whatever reason, I’ve always felt that was a very good thing.

Interestingly enough my focus is always on the athletes from Asia.  With Asia being one of the most dynamic places on earth both with population and increased economic activity, I’m always watching for the countries from Asia to take their place on the medal stand.  Regrettably, other than China, I think the cultural differences in sport don’t lend themselves to Asian athletes.  What other reason could we explain the Indian team showing up in Vancouver and not having any uniforms for the opening ceremonies? I hope that a certain point that cultural chasm between Asia and the Olympic movement gets some attention.

Of course China does not take a back seat to anybody at the Olympic games, having won the most medals at the 2008 Beijing Olympics.  They have a smaller contingent in Vancouver and they do not expect to win the medal count, but it’s pretty obvious in a few years they might be taking their place in the Winter Olympics too.

In many ways, China’s ascendance to large Olympic dreams mirrors the whole Asian region.  We have all had and some of us have experienced the economic explosion “on the other side of the world “.  China’s economic growth rates have continually been in the double digits with only a few hiccups over the last 10 years.  What this means of course is increased wealth per capita, increased trade and at the end of the day increased influence in the world.  When I have traveled into East Asia and Australia, China is like the big brother in the neighborhood.  Everybody is either trying to trade with them or keep them happy in some other way.

I read one study where the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion in 2040.  By that time the per capita income in China will be higher than many major countries in Western Europe.  The thrust of the study had to do with the differing standards of living.  It was pointed out that Western society was resting on their laurels and Asian society works harder and had a brighter future.

Sitting here in Canada and traveling across the United States, it’s somewhat difficult to truly fathom what all this means.  For instance as many of you know I give presentations across Canada on grain markets.  There are some fundamental economic benchmarks that I’ve always believed in.  Many of them have to do with the perceived wealth of Western society now and in the future.  So when you see the statistics regarding China and the influence that will give them, increasingly in 2010 that is making me pause.  What’s this mean for the world in the next 5 to 10 years and how can we thrive within that?

The short answer is everything should be turning up roses.  For instance doesn’t increased wealth in the world mean everybody’s doing better?  The point being it is not as simple as that as old prejudices combined with scarce economic resources and ethnic tensions always seem to get in the way.  China and much of South Asia surely has its share of that.  So simply stating that China and Asia are going to increasingly be the world’s leading power center does not necessarily ring true.

However, when this simple Canadian rides through the streets of Asia in a place like Bangladesh I cannot see how it can be avoided.   In other words, when I look at Bangladesh’s youth, work ethic and population and extrapolate that across Asia, I can only see good economic things.  I see at a certain point that these Asian nations take a leading role in world economic affairs and at some point in the future maybe my grandchildren or great-grandchildren here in Canada will take direction from there.

At the present time the Western world continues to deal with global economic recession.  Our American friends have particular troubles, as their government spending has been so high there is much conjecture on how they will pay it all back.  Our Chinese friends hold much of that debt in Asia.  I believe we will learn much from how the Chinese and Americans work out this problem in the next few years.  There are a myriad of options, not necessarily friendly to each side.  Nobody likes the specter of disappearing money.

The challenge will be to coexist peacefully as our world changes.  I see it as a fundamental shift of world power.  However, I don’t think everybody sees it that way especially on this side of the world.  So sure, that my friends, maybe a problem.  I just hope it doesn’t get too messy.

Changing world, Asia and its challenges
A.K. Enamul Haque PhD

As the Winter Olympics was lifted in Canada, my wife, my son and I were glued to the TV screen to watch the opening ceremony from Canada.  With full enthusiasm I was showing it to them because it is being held in Canada where I spent about 6 years of my life.  In few minutes time, my son asked me a question to which I did not have a full answer.  The question was “When Bangladesh would be able to participate in Winter Olympic?” I told him, unless we are able to deal with poverty, I don’t think we should even think of participating in it.  It is still a club where rich nations can only afford to play.

I agree with Phil that Asia is changing rapidly.  With China growing, Asian economies are also integrating in terms of trade and investment. In 2003, the Wharton Business School published a book called “the Chinese Century”.  I have been teaching this book in my class on international business.

The book narrates how this century is likely to be the Chinese century.  However, I see the rise of Asia as a result of the consequences of the failures of the economic super powers. What we see today is a sequel of a drama.

Asia was an economic superpower until the nineteenth century.  In 1820, India and China produced more than 50% of the world’s GDP.  These two countries were at the center of attraction for all. At that time, all voyages were coming to Asia. Many European countries floated companies like the East India Company to trade with India only.  However, it has all changed since then.

Asia was colonized by Europe and it gradually lost its economic power.  Europe emerged as the new center of the universe in terms of economic activities. By 1920, Europe reached its peak. The economic growth of Europe also led to migration of people and migration of capital. But by the 1940s Europe lost its power to the USA.  How? Europeans got themselves into trouble when they initiated the wars- one in 1919 and other one in 1939. The war eroded their economic power.

By the end of the WWII, the USA emerged as a new center of economic power.  The free world began to assemble around USA.  Many now believe that its economic power is also coming to an end. Unfortunately this is also due to several wars.  This time, however, the wars are fought far away from its own territory – in the Middle East.

The current prediction is that by 2050, China and India will be the center of all economic activities in the world. However, I still think that this is far from true.  The fundamental challenge of Asian nations is not religious extremism, not freedom of speech, not capitalism, not socialism, not democracy; the challenge is how to deal with its huge scale of poverty.  Unless and until they can successfully deal with poverty Asian economies will not be able to stand on their feet. Unfortunately, except China others including India seemed to be less worried about it.

With Philip Shaw M.Sc

Happy New Year!  We have just finished 2009.  At the beginning of the year President Obama came into power after a massive electoral victory and all of us in the world thought that we have been able to wipe out the ghost of the 9/11.  Good-bye terrorism and good-bye a deceitful America!  The Delta Air flight Airbus 253 from Amsterdam to Detroit, which was approaching Detroit on the 25th of December 2009 led us to think that it is not true yet.  A Nigerian named Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab who was trying to ignite an explosive was tackled by some brave passengers and was later arrested and charged for terrorism.  The year thus ended in a big zero with a fear around the world, once again, that air travel is not yet safe.

As I was talking to Phil over skype last week, he was telling me that the flight path was right above Dresden as the plane was approaching the Detroit airport.  The event was a chilling reminder to air travelers around the world that traveling is far from safe despite the number of security measures that were adopted to make it safe for us.

I myself travel a lot around the globe.  My experience of seeing the various kinds of security measures being followed in different airports often confused me and I like many others also thought many a times that some of the security measures are simply too much.  They are counter-productive as terrorists might be able to sneak into an airplane no matter how smart we are and how many different measures we take to secure our flights.

India, our neighbor, has been under terrorist threats from various quarters.  Unlike global terrorism, it has threats from within who are not definitely religious groups. Almost all Indian airlines take special measures while on board and it includes hand checking all your hand baggage while entering the plane.  This is after two rounds of scanning and two rounds of body scanning.  Often it creates unnecessary delays while boarding but Indian travelers have adopted it quite nicely.  Rarely, have I seen them complaining about it.

Sri Lanka, has been under terrorist threats from the Tamils for many years.  They also adopted a very similar checking while boarding except that they do not hand-check the body and luggage while entering the plane but they hand check all of your baggage at the entry of the airport premises and later while entering into the security zone.  In fact, security threats are still so great in Sri Lanka that in my last visit, our vehicle was stopped nearly half a kilometer outside the terminal and we were asked to board in an exclusive airport bus to get inside the terminal.

Nepal was under terrorist threat for many years as the Maoists were threatening the political stability of the country at that time.  Security measures were also up in Katmandu.  In my last visit with my family, we checked in on time for a flight to Dhaka from Katmandu and decided to enter into the security clearing area to board.  Unfortunately, our flight was delayed for 5 hours and to my surprise I realized that I couldn’t even go back to the food zone to fetch food for my son.  What was the reason?  The security clearance zone is the last stop for boarding and you cannot come back.  I realized that I made a mistake of going into the zone before seeing the plane landed.  I learned my lesson for that day!

Bangkok Thailand, a relatively peaceful country but they have threats of terrorism from their southern zone.  The security system in Bangkok is mostly machine-dependent but you will find that traveling will be quite confusing if you wear suits or overcoats or even have belts on your waist.  Of course, shoes must be without any metal parts.  If not, you have to take your shoes off while crossing the security clearance and pass the shoes through the scanner.  At the same time, they are particularly careful when you carry liquid stuff like water bottle, gels etc.  In most cases, you have to leave them in a box forever.  I’ve seen many people leaving these items behind while boarding in planes.

The Dubai airport has a funny system, which I still do not understand.  You will be screened while boarding in and also screened again while going out of the plane.  My confusion is that we have been out of a plane and still have to go through security clearance to travel from one gate to other gate?  Yes, that’s Dubai.  Of course, you have to do – walk slowly in a queue with shoes, belts and coats in your hand too!

Traveling to Europe is OK but if you are catching a flight to USA, the gates are different in most of the airports I have traveled so far.  This is also true within South Asia if you are boarding in a flight to India.  And yet, Umar was able to take explosives inside and was able to ignite it while on board!  Unbelievable to me!  Shall I trust it?  I am not yet sure about it.   Was it done to start a new “war on terrorism”?  Was it done to ensure that “America’s war against the Muslims continue or to change Obama’s mindset?”  Was it done to make Israel a good trusted friend of the USA again!  I genuinely hope that it is not.  Why am I questioning these?  The reason is that I know that all passengers traveling to the USA go through special gates from Europe.  The scanning process, the security clearance, etc., all are different.  Yet we have to believe that he possessed his explosives from Yemen and was able to pass through all security gates around the world!  I have a hard time to swallow it.  Let us hope that we get a clear picture about it this time.  I don’t want to see a smoking gun pointed towards Yemen like what happened only few years ago in Iraq.

Being On a Watch List: My Travels Through Air Security
By Philip Shaw M.Sc.

I like to tell everybody that I have traveled around the world.  In 2003, I managed to fly around the world by mistake.  I had planned on visiting Bangladesh by going east through Amsterdam and Singapore and back the same way.  On arrival at the Sarnia airport, I found out that my flight was canceled to New York City.  So the airline attendant somehow found a way for me to go west around the world to Bangladesh and I came back on my original flight going west again, completely encircling the globe.  My brother told me it would be much more impressive if I had done it in a leaky old boat like Magellan.

I agree.  I cannot imagine how Magellan floated around the world in a leaky old boat.  If memory serves me correct he didn’t.  Something tells me he was killed on the other side of the world and his men made it back to Spain.  I don’t know, but it was an impressive feat.

Just think if  Magellan could imagine air travel and air security.  It’s a nonstarter.  What was different about my trip in 2003 was it was my first trip to Asia after 9/11.  As I traveled around the world I was asked to take off my shoes and security was obviously so much stricter than it was before 9/11.

The one airport I remember very clearly from 2003 was getting on a 747 in Singapore.  I was boarding a flight from Singapore to Newark New Jersey.  So I was thinking that security would be very tight.  It was.  A very tough lady who was standing in front of the passport control interviewed everybody who was getting on that plane.  She was tough as nails, sending people down and bringing people back up and asking very direct questions.  I went through no problem.  However I remember getting on that plane thinking there’s nobody getting past her.

Fast-forward to 2009.  Your loyal scribe found himself back on a plane going to the other side of the world to visit my friend Enamel.  This time I did not fly through the United States, completely bypassing them flying from Toronto to Dubai and then on to Bangladesh.  Security was tight again and in fact this time after I went through passport control and was about to board the plane I was met by four security officers from Canada customs with a guard dog asking me questions about how much money I had.  It was one of the most bizarre things I’ve ever seen at a Canadian airport.  Needless to say they passed this poor farmer off and into the plane.

Of course it is all about traveling in 2010.  The air traveling public has become used to it and flying is no longer seen as some type of exotic thing.  In fact in North America if you have any flight less than two hours, I think a lot of people think about driving.  Flying has just become too much of a hassle.

The last time I flew in the United States I was asked for extra security identification and had to answer some questions before I got on the plane.  This happened twice to me.  The second time I calmly asked why.  The employee of the airline told me that I was on a “watch list”.  I must’ve looked horrified because without flinching she told me don’t worry about it, a lot of people are!

That is something I don’t wear as a badge of honor.  In fact as a Canadian how do I get off the US watch list?  I don’t know, write Barack Obama?  It just goes to show that in 2010, “ridiculous” has come into vogue with regard to air security.  I’m on a watch list and so was Umar, except he gets on a plane without luggage on a one-way ticket paid in cash and tries to blow it up.  None of this is making sense anymore.

I can remember the day when there was no airport security.  People asked to ride in the cockpit and many got their wish.  People walked through airports like they were supermarkets.  Even I have boarded a plane from Launceston Tasmania to Melbourne Australia without a security check.  Back in 1984 they had none.

Of course we are not going back to those days.  However, we are surely going into something different in North America with increased security and maybe even racial profiling.  Enamul didn’t mention that.  He has in fact been profiled in a Canadian airport in the past.

What’s the challenge?  I think we all know, keeping those terrorists off the planes and maintaining some type of normalcy regarding air security.  Yes, it is a challenge and if the events over Dresden on Christmas Day mean anything, it’s that we still have a long way to go.